Information, partisanship, and preferences in a pandemic.

We investigate the role of information exposure in shaping attitudes and behaviors related to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic and whether baseline political affiliation and news diet mediate effects. In December 2020, we randomly assigned 5,009 U.S. adults to nine brief text-based segments related to the dynamics of the pandemic and the safety of various behaviors, estimating the effects on 15 binary outcomes related to COVID-19 policy preferences, expected consumer behavior, and beliefs about safety. Average effects reach significance (95% CI) in 47 out of 120 models and equal 7.4 ppt. The baseline effects are large for all outcomes except beliefs. By contrast, interaction effects by political party and media diet are significant for beliefs but rarely significant for policy and behavioral attitudes. These findings suggest partisan policy and behavioral gaps are driven, at least in part, by exposure to different information and that equalizing information sources would lead to partisan convergence in beliefs.

Misperceptions of COVID-19 illness risk and preferences for business and school closures in the United States.

Misperceptions about COVID-19 health risks may be associated with preferences for school and business closures and fear of becoming seriously ill. We analyzed data from the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economic of Recovery Study (July-December 2020, N = 35,068). Primary outcomes were whether a respondent favored closure of businesses or in-person schooling for elementary/secondary students. We also assessed respondents' fear of COVID-19 illness. We assessed risk misperceptions using respondents' estimates of the proportion of deaths from COVID-19 that occurred in persons under 55 years-old, the proportion of hospitalizations for COVID-19 that occurred in persons under 55 years-old, the mortality rate among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, and the rate of hospitalization for patients infected with COVID-19. The proportion of respondents who favored business closures ranged from 37% to 53%, and the proportion of respondents who favored school closures ranged from 38% to 44%. Most participants reported beliefs about COVID-19 health risks that were inaccurate, and overestimation of health risk was most common. For example, while deaths in persons younger than 55 years-old accounted for 7% of total U.S. deaths, respondents estimated that this population represented 43% of deaths. Overestimating COVID-19 health harms was associated with increased likelihood of fear of serious illness if infected, preferences for business closures, and preferences for school closures. U.S. survey respondents overestimated several COVID-19 risks, and overestimation was associated with increased fear of serious illness and stronger preferences for business/school lockdowns.

Association of COVID-19 Risk Misperceptions With Household Isolation in the United States: Survey Study.

BACKGROUND: Adverse mental and emotional health outcomes are increasingly recognized as a public health challenge associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to examine the association of COVID-19 risk misperceptions with self-reported household isolation, a potential risk factor for social isolation and loneliness. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study (July to December 2020) of 24,649 US adults. We also analyzed data from the Gallup Panel (March 2020 to February 2021), which included 123,516 observations about loneliness. The primary outcome was self-reported household isolation, which we defined as a respondent having no contact or very little contact with people outside their household, analogous to quarantining. RESULTS: From July to December 2020, 53% to 57% of respondents reported living in household isolation. Most participants reported beliefs about COVID-19 health risks that were inaccurate, and overestimation of health risk was most common. For example, while deaths in persons younger than 55 years old accounted for 7% of total US deaths, respondents estimated that this population represented 43% of deaths. Overestimating COVID-19 health risks was associated with increased self-reported household isolation, with percentage differences ranging from 5.6 to 11.8 (P<.001 at each time point). Characteristics associated with self-reported household isolation from the July and August 2020 surveys and persisting in the December 2020 survey included younger age (18 to 39 years), having a serious medical condition, having a household member with a serious medical condition, and identifying as a Democrat. In the Gallup Panel, self-reported household isolation was associated with a higher prevalence of loneliness. CONCLUSIONS: Pandemic-related harms to emotional and mental well-being may be attenuated by reducing risk overestimation and household isolation preferences that exceed public health guidelines.

Density zoning and class segregation in U.S. metropolitan areas.

OBJECTIVES: Socioeconomic segregation rose substantially in U.S. cities during the final decades of the 20th century, and we argue that zoning regulations are an important cause of this increase.Methods. We measure neighborhood economic segregation using the Gini coefficient for neighborhood income inequality and the poor-affluent exposure index. These outcomes are regressed on an index of density zoning developed from the work of Pendall for 50 U.S. metropolitan areas, while controlling for other metropolitan characteristics likely to affect urban housing markets and class segregation.Results. For both 2000 and changes from 1990 to 2000, OLS estimates reveal a strong relationship between density zoning and income segregation, and replication using 2SLS suggests that the relationship is causal. We also show that zoning is associated with higher interjurisdictional inequality.Conclusions. Metropolitan areas with suburbs that restrict the density of residential construction are more segregated on the basis of income than those with more permissive density zoning regimes. This arrangement perpetuates and exacerbates racial and class inequality in the United States.